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19,000 Georgia GOP primary voters voted in the 2020 Democratic primary

It
is
very
easy
to
read
far
more
into
primary
election
results
than
is
warranted.
There’s
a
natural
inclination
to
do
so,
of
course;
people
are
curious
about
the
general
election
and
here
are
some
actual
votes
from
actual
voters,
so
let’s
figure
out
what
they
mean!
You
can
appreciate
the
thought
process
of
that
first
person,
curious
about
the
future,
who
noticed
a
weird
pattern
in
the
tea
leaves
at
the
bottom
of
their
cup.

This
year
has
been
a
big
one
for
sending
messages
with
primary
votes
to
candidates
of
both
parties,
an
effort
that
works
better
when
there
are

fewer
total
voters
engaged

in
voting
as
has
been
the
case
since
New
Hampshire,
when
it
was
obvious
that
former
president
Donald
Trump
and
President
Biden
would
be
the
nominees.
But
those
relatively
modest
vote
totals
are
also
why
we
should
be
cautious
about
our
conclusions.

End
of
carousel

Consider
Georgia.
On
Tuesday,
the
state
conducted
its
presidential
primaries,
helping
Trump
and
Biden
formally
secure
enough
delegates
to
ensure
their
parties’
nominations.
Trump
won
Georgia
with

84
percent
of
the
vote
,
among
his
biggest
victories
this
year.
The
second-place
finisher,
former
U.N.
ambassador
Nikki
Haley,
secured
about
80,000
votes.

Still,
some
people
argued,
Haley
pulling
in
80,000
votes

after

she’d

suspended
her
campaign

might
spell
trouble
for
Trump
in
the
state.
After
all,
Biden
won
Georgia
in
2020
by
fewer
than
12,000
votes.
If
those
are
80,000
votes
Trump
lost,
that’s
bad
news.

The
issue,
as
The
Washington
Post
has

written
before
,
is
that
there
is
no
reason
to
think
that
those
votes
would
ever
have
gone
to
Trump.
And
we
now
have
some
robust
evidence
to
that
effect.
Data
on
Tuesday’s
electorate
released
by
the
state
and
gathered
by
the
political
data
firm
L2
(nearly
but
not
entirely
complete)
indicates
that
about
19,000
people
who
voted
in
the
2024
Republican
primary
also
voted
in
the
2020

Democratic

one.
Perhaps
some
were
Republicans
hoping
to
influence
who
the
Democrats
nominated
four
years
ago.
But
many,
it’s
safe
to
assume,
were
Democrats
hoping
to
send
a
message
about
Trump.

One
indicator
of
that
is
among
those
19,000
voters,
about
56
percent
voted
before
Election
Day
compared
with
less
than
half
of
Republican
primary
voters
overall
who
did.
This
suggests
these
are
Democratic
voters
in
an
abstract
sense;
Democrats
have
been
more
likely
to
vote
early
and
by
mail
in
recent
elections.
But
it
also
suggests
that
these
voters
may
have
been
more
likely
to
support
Haley

if,
that
is,
the
number
of
voters
showing
up
on
Election
Day
was
lower
because
she
had
already
dropped
out.

Another
indicator:
about
2
percent
of
Republican
primary
voters
were
Black,
but
12
percent
of
2020
Democratic
primary
voters
who
voted
in
the
Republican
primary
this
year
were.

If
most
of
those
votes
went
to
Haley,
it
accounts
for
a
big
chunk
of
her
support.
Statewide,
she
got
about
78,000
votes,
meaning
that

if
every
2020
Democratic
primary
voter
backed
her

it
would
constitute
about
a
quarter
of
the
votes
she
received.

Haley’s
support
was
stronger
in
urban
and
suburban
counties
than
rural
or
small
metropolitan
counties,
just
as
Biden’s
was
in
the
state
in
2020.
More
than
8,500
of
the
2020
Democratic
primary
voters
were
in
suburban
counties.
That’s
about
23
percent
of
the
total
votes
Haley
won
in
those
same
places.

It’s
useful
to
remember,
though,
that
Trump
and
Biden
each
received
more
than
1
million
votes
in
those
same
counties.
Even
the
37,500
votes
Haley
received
in
suburban
counties
is
less
than
2
percent
of
the
votes
cast
in
those
places,
to
say
nothing
of
those
8,500
crossover
votes.
In
other
words,
this
is
not
necessarily
an
indication
that
a
significant
portion
of
Trump’s
base
has
defected.

We
can
assume
that
some
of
the
support
Haley
saw
came
from
people
she
convinced
to
oppose
Trump
and
who
will
oppose
him
in
November,
too.
But
exit
polling
and
the
L2
data
suggest
that
much
of
her
support
came
from
people
who
weren’t
likely
to
support
Trump
anyway.

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