Another Dem-Oversampled Poll Still Has Trump Beating Harris 48-45

In today’s episode of why polls are generally bullshit – a new survey of voters from Harvard-Harris has Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris 48-45, despite yet another egregious oversampling of roughly 25% Democrats which was then ‘weighted to the US general adult population’ – that still resulted in a Democrat oversample.

Now imagine if the poll wasn’t ridiculously skewed and oversampled to Democrats:

Republican respondents: 654
Democrat respondents: 883 https://t.co/eB4iV282EO pic.twitter.com/WMzfcll4H3

— (@) July 30, 2024

This, despite the fact that Gallup has national party identification at +6 Republicans/Republican leaning independents.

And the fact that Gallup has party ID at R+6 makes this even more ridiculous ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/HQacaUFmZw

— Biden Illegal Invader Rape & Murder Tracker (@jimispod59) July 30, 2024

Oddly, we couldn’t find any polls which oversampled Republicans.

When we pointed out the oversample on X, the ‘weighted’ crowd suggested that ‘this is how any survey works.’

And the weighting is how the survey creators can goalseek any outcome they want. Which is why every single poll is massively oversampled to dems

— (@) July 30, 2024

Except, again, it isn’t an accurate reflection of US voters whatsoever, and their ‘weighting’ of such a vast disparity between those polled and reality means we’re trusting them to be honest with their black box.

25% more dem’s polled?

— Marcel J (@isit1984yet) July 30, 2024

Now, imagine if the same poll was accurately sampled at +6R.

Meanwhile, here’s an overview of major polls of Trump vs. Harris via Statista.