Electric Big-Rigs Don’t Make Sense Even With $40,000 In Tax Credits

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Due to Biden’s regulations, truckers are driving older engines longer because they can’t afford newer diesel models. The result is more pollution.

California’s EV Rules Reduce Truck Sales by 50 Percent

The Wall Street Journal reports You Can’t Buy That Diesel Truck.

California’s Advanced Clean Fleets rule says “zero-emission” trucks must be a growing share of semi-truck fleet sales. California imposes a similar mandate for passenger cars. Trouble is, truckers aren’t buying electric big rigs because they can’t afford them even with $40,000 in federal tax credits. Electric trucks cost twice as much as diesel-powered rigs and have a limited driving range—150 miles on average, compared to between 1,000 and 1,500 for diesel trucks. There are also few truck charging stations.

Yet under California’s rules, “dealers are restricted from selling a diesel truck unless they sell a ZEV truck,” the dealer group reports. The result: “New class 8 truck sales (ZEV and Diesel) were down 50 percent year-over-year in June 2024.” Truckers are driving older engines longer because they can’t buy newer diesel models, which results in more pollution.

Dealers say trucks are piling up on their lots—electric models because truckers won’t buy them, and diesel rigs that dealers consequently aren’t allowed to sell. Dealers say they incur monthly interest penalties on unsold truck inventory that can amount to more than $99,000.

“Without significant modifications, there is a very real likelihood that some dealers and their customers will start going out of business in the near future. This will hit small businesses the hardest,” the dealers write.

Driving Range (AI Generated)

• Tesla Semi: The Tesla Semi has a range of approximately 300 or 500 miles. The 500 mile extended-range version starts at $180,000.
• Freightliner eCascadia: The eCascadia’s driving range depends on the battery capacity and configuration. The 438 kWh battery has a range of 230 miles for the 4×2 configuration and 220 miles for the 6×4 configuration. The 291 kWh battery has a range of 155 miles for the 4×2 configuration.
• Volvo VNR Electric: The Volvo VNR Electric has a range of 275 miles.
• Kenworth T680E: The Kenworth T680E has a range of 150 miles.
• Peterbilt 579EV: The Peterbilt 579EV has a range of 150 miles.
• BYD 8TT: The BYD 8TT has a range of 167 miles.

In contrast to the above EV estimates, the driving range of a diesel semi is 900 to 2,000 miles on average.

EV Foothold

TruckParkingClub provides a closer look at how heavy electric trucks are gaining a foothold.

Heavy-electric truck adoption in the U.S. is growing, albeit slowly. Charging infrastructure rollout is lagging, truck-model recalls slowed market launches, and two battery makers—Romeo Power and Proterra—liquidated assets and entered Chapter 11 bankruptcy, respectively.

As of January 2024, of a fleet of 12.2 million trucks, just 13,000 were electric, according to the Environmental Defense Fund analysis. That analysis defined these trucks as Class 2B to Class 8 vehicles, ranging from step-up vans to tractor-trailers.

Even as battery technology for electric trucks continues to evolve, manufacturers will face formidable challenges on the path to widespread adoption.

Despite the potential to increase the range of electric trucks by 30%, the large size and hefty weight of Daimler Trucks’ lithium iron phosphate batteries—plus their lower energy density and poor performance in extreme temperatures—make them less than ideal for cross-country treks in varied conditions. Nissan projects exclusive use of lighter-density solid-state batteries by 2028; but drawbacks remain, including the high price of lithium, a lack of viable recycling options, and the risks of lithium electrodes shorting out as batteries age.

Disparities in charging infrastructure in rural areas remain a significant barrier to electrification. Another common concern in the passenger vehicle market is charging time, which could impact truckers operating on tight schedules. This, however, can be mitigated by improving charging technology and exploring the use of China’s battery swap technology in the American market.

Foothold Math

13,000 / 12.2 million = 0.1 percent. That’s not much of a foothold.

Tesla (TSLA) Semi Rollout

Elon Muck said he would be producing 50,000 EV semis a year. That was in 2017.

As of December 21, 2023, the Tesla Semi Fleet Has Almost 100 Trucks

Tesla delivered the first Semi trucks in December 2022, but little has been said about the Class-8 truck or its dedicated production line at Giga Nevada in the past year.

Now, Tesla’s VP of Engineering Lars Moravy reveals that Tesla has tripled its Semi fleet, with volume production planned for 2024.

It took Tesla 5 years to produce a single truck. And we are now up to a grand total of 100, almost.

50,000 promised in 2017. Almost 100 delivered by the end of 2023.

Issues

Lack of charging stations is a huge issue. Also, what would the price of electricity be if we were to meet the zero emission goals in the stated timeframe?

And totally made in the US with 100 percent US components? Forget it. We do not have the minerals needed for the batteries.

O.K. EVs will happen. But the pace will not be remotely close to what is expected.

4 Million Semis on the Road, Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations

On April 1, I noted 4 Million Semis on the Road, Only 35 Class 8 Truck EV Charging Stations

I keep seeing reports that diesel EV are less expensive if one takes in the cost of diesel at 6.5 or 7.0 gallons per mile.

But I’ll tell you what. If EVs were less expensive in practice, all things considered, penetration would not be 0.1 percent.

Heck, it’s tough selling them with $40,000 tax credits even in California which has more chargers than anywhere else.