New Emerson Poll: Trump Beats Biden by Three Points, And Crushes All Potential Democrat Replacement Candidates

A post-debate Emerson College poll on the presidential race released Tuesday shows President Trump beating Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup by three points. However, in a bit of good news for Biden as he fights to remain the Democrats’ presidential nominee, the survey also shows Trump beating every potential replacement candidate for Biden by larger numbers–including Kamala Harris whom Trump crushes by six points.

The poll with undecideds asked to decide is Trump 50.2 and Biden 49.8. In a six-way matchup, Trump leads Biden 44 to 40 percent, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 6 percent, with Cornel West and Jill Stein at 1 percent and 8 percent undecided.

The really bad news for Biden and the Democrats was in a separate post-debate Emerson poll released Monday showing Trump beating Biden in six swing states.

In Tuesday’s Emerson poll Biden and Harris each receive 43 percent against Trump. However, Trump gains three points over Harris from those who were undecided between Trump and Biden, going from 46 percent against Biden to 49 percent against Harris, undercutting the cause for Harris to replace Biden.

NATIONAL POLL

2024 hypothetical matchups

Trump 46%
Biden 43%
11% undecided

Trump 49%
Harris 43%
8% undecidedhttps://t.co/sFmXGN2DiX pic.twitter.com/82lwi0bZnx

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) July 9, 2024

The Emerson poll is bad news for any Democrat dreaming and scheming to replace Biden at the top of the Democrat ticket. Those who recently floated a rematch for Hillary Clinton will be sorely disappointed.

Vice President Kamala Harris: 49% Trump, 43% Harris, 8% undecided
Senator Bernie Sanders: 48% Trump, 42% Sanders, 10% undecided
California Governor Gavin Newsom: 48% Trump, 40% Newsom, 12% undecided
Former Vice President Al Gore: 47% Trump, 42% Gore, 11% undecided
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton: 48% Trump, 41% Clinton, 11% undecided
Senator Elizabeth Warren: 49% Trump, 39% Warren, 13% undecided
Secretary of State Pete Buttigieg: 49% Trump, 39% Buttigieg, 12% undecided
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro: 46% Trump, 38% Shapiro, 16% undecided
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer: 48% Trump, 38% Whitmer, 15% undecided

“The Emerson College Polling national survey was conducted July 7-8, 2024. The sample of registered voters, n=1,370, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and region based on 2024 registration modeling. Turnout modeling is based on U.S. Census parameters, and voter registration data.”

An Emerson Poll released Monday that was sponsored by DemNextGen, a shadow group trying to push Biden aside, shows Trump beating Biden in six swing states with only Michigan being razor close.

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 48% (+5)
Biden: 43%
—
WISCONSIN
Trump: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
—
MICHIGAN
Trump: 45% (+1)
Biden: 44%
—
NEVADA
Trump: 47% (+6)
Biden: 41%
—
ARIZONA
Trump: 46% (+4)
Biden: 42%
—
GEORGIA
Trump: 47% (+5)
Biden: 42%

Emerson/DemNextGen Post-debate poll

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 48% (+5)
Biden: 43%
—
WISCONSIN
Trump: 47% (+3)
Biden: 44%
—
MICHIGAN
Trump: 45% (+1)
Biden: 44%
—
NEVADA
Trump: 47% (+6)
Biden: 41%
—
ARIZONA
Trump: 46% (+4)
Biden: 42%
—
GEORGIA
… pic.twitter.com/7RNp0huzIv

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 8, 2024

Biden has vowed to stay in the race and is working behind the scenes and in public to keep Democrats in line. Only six Democrat members of Congress have publicly called on Biden to withdraw from the race as of Tuesday morning, according to a report by CBS News: Lloyd Doggett (TX), Raul Grijalva (AZ), Seth Moulton (MA), Mike Quigley (IL), Angie Craig (MN) and Adam Smith (WA).

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