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‘Soft’ Survey Data Collapse Continues With Chicago PMI Plunge

‘Soft’ Survey Data Collapse Continues With Chicago PMI Plunge

The trend for ‘soft’ survey data is very much not the friend of the ‘soft-landing’ or ‘goldilocks’ narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism…

Source: Bloomberg

And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the ‘weird’ spike in November, back into contraction…

Under the hood was ugly:

  • New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

  • Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction

  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion

  • Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction

  • Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction

Worse still, the prices paid index component continued to rise.

Slower growth, rising prices, and survey-based hope fading fast – not exactly ‘election-winning’ headlines.


Wed, 01/31/2024 – 11:45

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