The trend for ‘soft’ survey data is very much not the friend of the ‘soft-landing’ or ‘goldilocks’ narrative peddlers as it slumps from extreme optimism to disappointed pessimism…
And today saw more of the same as the Chicago MNI tumbled further off the ‘weird’ spike in November, back into contraction…
Under the hood was ugly:
New orders fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Employment fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Inventories fell at a faster pace; signaling contraction
Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace; signaling expansion
Production fell and the direction reversed; signaling contraction
Order backlogs fell at a slower pace; signaling contraction
Worse still, the prices paid index component continued to rise.
Slower growth, rising prices, and survey-based hope fading fast – not exactly ‘election-winning’ headlines.